Dr. Sioshansi has a new article available on the RenewEconomy website. It is titled “Tesla battery business plan gives energy utilities strife”. To read it, click here.
The April 2014 issue of EEnergy Informer is now available. Here is the contents list:
- In Turbulent Times US Has Less To Worry
- Future Of US Coal: More Exports
- Japan’s Energy Strategy: With Or Without Nuclear?
- Appliance Energy Efficiency Standards Matter
- California Marching Ahead On Climate Target
- European Electricity Prices Rising
- Distributed Energy Poised For Growth
- Tesla’s Business Plan Gives Utilities Strife
- Apple’s CEO: Don’t Like Green? Get Out Of Stock
- Finnish Nuke Delayed Again
- US Solar Growing On Steroids, For Now
- Has Time Arrived For Electricity Pre-payment Schemes?
- Do Renewables Contribute When Most Needed?
Dr. Sioshansi has a new article available on the RenewEconomy website. It is titled “Is Google an information or energy company?”. To read it, click here.
US Shale gas may be a game changer, but not a substitute for climate policy.
This is a sample article from the March 2014 issue of EEnergy Informer.
Every now and then, politicians propose pet projects that may get them local votes but not much else. There have, for example, been numerous proposals to build bridges where the traffic volume would not remotely justify the investment costs. They are commonly referred to as bridges to nowhere.
In this context, many — this newsletter’s editor included — believe that the current bounty of cheap and plentiful shale gas, while certainly welcomed, is not and should not be viewed as a panacea to solve all US energy and environmental problems, because it can’t and won’t.
In his State of the Union address in late January 2014, President Obama, contradicted himself, perhaps unwittingly, when he reiterated his support for climate science by noting that, “The debate is settled. Climate change is a fact,” while vouching his support for increased extraction of, and reliance on, natural gas.
President Obama said, “If extracted safely, it’s the bridge fuel that can power our economy with less carbon pollution that causes climate change.” He is, of course, correct that the conversion from coal to natural gas plus the downturn in the US economy has reduced CO2 emissions from the power sector to their lowest levels since 1994. However, as noted by a posting on The Equation, the website of Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) “Natural gas is still a fossil fuel that emits CO2 when combusted … contributing to global warming in the process.”
Following the SOU address, numerous others objected to the view that just because natural gas is cleaner than coal, it cannot serve as America’s solution to climate challenge. As observed by this newsletter in the past, if a heavy smoker decides to smoke half as many cigarettes as he used to, that would be a move in the right direction, but not a cure to his unhealthy addiction.
UCS posted a graph on its website (reproduced above) that speaks volumes. It shows that US greenhouse gas emissions under a scenario where US would transition to a natural gas dominated electricity future would barely change between today and 2050 “because, in addition to replacing coal, natural gas generation would grow to replace aging nuclear plants and help meet the projected growth in electricity demand.”
A number of others had a similar take on the president’s message. John Farrell, who frequently contributes to Renewable Energy World.com, for example, said, “Natural gas is not a bridge fuel, it’s a gateway drug.” In an article dated 3 Feb 2014, which was picked by other publications, he noted that, “natural gas powered electricity still pours 1.22 lbs of CO2 into the atmosphere for every kWh of electricity it produces. That’s 6 tons of CO2 per year from every household in America if its electricity were completely generated with natural gas.”
Pointing to traditional volatility of prices, which became noticeable during the recent cold spell in parts of America, many observers believe that investing in massive new natural gas infrastructure will simply bind us to the fuel.
Farrell believes that “expanding natural gas use in electricity and transportation is risky, it’s dirty, and — most of all — it’s unnecessary,” adding, “Natural gas isn’t a bridge, it’s a relapse. And it’s time we admit it.”
The rapid growth of distributed generation, solar PVs, and micro-grids represents a significant milestone in the evolution of the electric power industry, where advances in technology coupled with rapidly falling costs are allowing a growing number of customers to self-generate some or most of the electricity they need – thus bypassing the grid-supplied electricity. This decentralized energy revolution, now manifested in a number of high retail tariff regions such as Germany, California and Australia, is expected to apply to other regions over time.
The impact of customer self-generation on the traditional revenue stream of incumbent suppliers will grow and could be quite significant. Experts refer to solar PVs, micro-grids, and other means of self-generation and storage, including fuel cells and storage devices as disruptive technologies. As their costs continue to fall and their reliability and performance improves, they will increasingly compete with more expensive grid-supplied power. The book covers technical, economic, regulatory, and policy implications associated with the rapid rise of decentralized generation with perspectives from different parts of the world.
Key Features of the Book
- Provides the latest developments in the growth of distributed generation, rooftop solar PVs and micro-grids covering the US, Europe and Australia
- Offers diverse insights and perspectives from the vintage point of technology and business experts on the implications of distributed generation on the electric power sector
- Includes analysis of the impact of decentralized generation on the grid and on traditional utility business model
We expect the book to be available for pre-order in April.
Dr. Sioshansi has an article in the latest edition of Energy Spectrum magazine. It is titled “State of retail electricity markets″. To read it, click here (PDF).
The March 2014 issue of EEnergy Informer is now available. Here is the contents list:
- BP: Global Demand Growth In Gradual Decline
- Natural Gas: The Ultimate Bridge To Nowhere
- California Renewable Target: How High Is High Enough?
- EPRI: Start With A Clean Slate
- State Of Retail Electricity Markets
- World’s Largest CSP Operational
- Is Google An Information Or Energy Company?
- Energy Storage To Reach 40 GW By 2022
- Who Gains Most From Fuel Subsidies
- Why Is It Hard To Put A Number On Nuclear Costs
- 8 MW Wind Turbine Starts Spinning
- German Renewable Correction: In A Bind
- Do Renewables Contribute When Most Needed?
- Impact Of Distributed Generation On Utility Business Model
The disparity between recent trends and future projections is puzzling.
This is a sample article from the February 2014 issue of EEnergy Informer.
that is the question many independent analysts would like to know. The Energy Information Administration (EIA), is an independent entity within the US Department of Energy, specifically set up to collect, analyze and disseminate unbiased, non-partisan information on energy-related topics. So why is it persistently and chronically under-estimating the growth potential of renewables in its long-term projections? It is a puzzle, perhaps explained by outdated models it uses, or — more likely — outdated cost assumptions that are not supported by recent facts or trends.
Recent data from the Energy Infrastructure Update compiled by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) Office of Energy Projects indicates that renewables make up a growing percentage of all new generation coming on line in the US in 2013. Renewables accounted for a stunning 100% of all new capacity additions in Nov 2013, 99% in Oct 2013 and nearly 35% for the first 11 months of 2013. Perhaps these figures are unrepresentative of longer-term trends, but by all indications, renewables are likely to grow at a much faster clip than EIA projects.
Renewable sources now account for 15.9% of total installed US generating capacity, surpassing nuclear and oil combined, which are 9.2% and 4.05%, respectively.
Critics of EIA’s projections are crying foul. “FERC’s latest renewable energy capacity data, coupled with the actual electrical generation from renewable sources, reveal a growing disconnect with the longer-term projections being issued by EIA,” according to Ken Bossong, Executive Director of the SUN DAY Campaign, a pro-renewable advocacy group. “With virtually all new electrical generation coming from renewables during the last two months (Oct & Nov 2013), it is obvious that solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, and hydropower are rapidly outpacing EIA’s unduly conservative forecasts.”
Mr. Bossong, like many others, is troubled by the apparent inconsistencies between recent FERC data — reporting record new renewable installations — and EIA’s projections — which appear increasingly disconnected from the recent trends and indicators. He notes that, “ … the Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (released in mid-Dec 2013)… projected that renewable sources would provide only a paltry 16% of the nation’s electricity supply by 2040. EIA’s own data reveal that renewables were already providing 14.2% of the nation’s electrical generation as of June 30, 2013.” That would mean a measly 2% growth in renewable share between 2013 and 2040, a 27 year period.
He has a point. Someone is obviously not telling the truth — certainly not the whole truth.
Dr. Sioshansi has an article in the latest edition of Energy Spectrum magazine. It is titled “US gas to overtake coal by 2035″. To read it, click here (PDF).
On Wednesday 23 April Cornwall Energy and Menlo Energy Economics will host a joint event at the Institute of Directors in London to examine the impact of increasing levels of distributed generation on the traditional utilities’ business model.
In addition to Dr. Sioshansi, those participating will include Malcolm Keay (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies), Paul Nillesen (PwC), Michael Pollitt (Judge Business School, Cambridge University), Christoph Burger (European School of Management and Technology in Berlin), Stephen Littlechild (Judge Business School, University of Cambridge), Derek Bunn (London Business School), Stephen Woodhouse (Pöyry Management Consulting, Oxford), Catherine Mitchell (University of Exeter).
This free event will take place on 23 April at the Institute of Directors, 116 Pall Mall, London. Registration will begin at 2.30pm ready for a 3pm start. A drinks reception will follow at 6pm.
For a further details, including information on reserving a place, click here.